RIASSUNTO
INTRODUCTION
The world catch of fish has increased steadily since World War II from 19.6 million metric tons in 1948 to 69.3 million metric tons.1 Although the ultimate sustainable world catch has been predicted to be two to three times this level,2 the increase in over-all catch, and particularly that used for human consumption, has recently shown signs of slowing down. There are reports of serious local resource depletions that give rise to concern about these predictions. One example is the problem of the great Peruvian anchovy fishery that alone accounted for much of the increase in world landings in recent years. This fishery suffered a serious setback in 1972 because of a decline in abundance and a change in environmental conditions that places the resource beyond the reach of the fleet. Consequently, the government of Peru closed the fishery temporarily.
It is possible that the depletion of these and other important fish stocks are due in some measure to pollution, but the general belief is that the great increase in the capacity and efficiency of fishing operations has been primarily responsible. If any event, we see a limit to the speed and extent with which world fish supplies may increase to meet the needs of the rapidly growing world population.
In the U. S, the picture has been somewhat different. The total domestic catch since 1950 has remained essentially constant between 1.8 and 2.4 million tons, although this gross figure conceals considerable species to species shifts. Imports have increased over the same period from 1.6 to around 6.8 million tons with those in some years, notably 1968, exceeding this. Much of this increase has been in industrial products (fish meal and solub1es) but imports of edible fish have also grown over threefold during this time.
In addition to the factor of fish catch the future of the fish supply available to the U.S. is affected by increases in consumption of fish by other countries. The U. S. is finding itself in increasing competition for the world fishery harvest. For example, in 1971, for the first time Japan outbid U. S. importers for a large amount of shrimp caught in West Africa, India and Southeast Asia with a consequent decrease in imports. The recent increases in trade in salt cod at a time when the world catch of cod is declining has meant the U.S. must bid higher prices to attract imports of frozen cod. With the world tuna catch beginning to peak out, tuna prices rose 20 to 30 percent in 1972. These trends can be expected to continue and provide an increasing problem in meeting the fishery product needs of our own rapidly increasing population.