Pubblicazione scientifica

Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse

FILONE TECNOLOGICO	TEMA
economia circolare e sostenibilità
produzione e cattura

RIASSUNTO

Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment.

DATA

Data di pubblicazione: 20/09/2017

AUTORI

BLAND LUCIE M
REGAN TRACEY J
DINH MINH NGOC
FERRARI RENATA
KEITH DAVID A
LESTER REBECCA
MOUILLOT DAVID
MURRAY NICHOLAS J
NGUYEN HOANG ANH
NICHOLSON EMILY

ENTE DI AFFERENZA

UMR 5119—Écologie des Systèmes marins côtiers Université Montpellier 2 Montpellier Cedex 5 France
DEAKIN UNIV AUSTRALIA SCHOOL OF LIFE & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES CTR INTEGRATIVE ECOLOGY BURWOOD 3121 VICTORIA AUSTRALIA
SCHOOL OF BIOSCIENCES UNIV MELBOURNE PARKVILLE 3010 VICTORIA AUSTRALIA
ARTHUR RYLAH INST ENVIRONMENTAL RSCH DEPT ENVIRONMENT LAND WATER & PLANNING
RESEARCH COMPUTING CTR UNIV QUEENSLAND ST LUCIA 4072 QUEENSLAND AUSTRALIA
COASTAL & MARINE ECOSYSTEMS GROUP SCHOOL OF LIFE & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES UNIV SYDNEY SYDNEY NEW SOUTH WALES AUSTRALIA
CTR ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE SCHOOL OF BIOLOGICAL EARTH & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE UNIV NEW SOUTH WALES KENSINGTON 2052 NEW SOUTH WALES AUSTRALIA
NEW SOUTH WALES OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENT & HERITAGE HURSTVILLE 2220 NEW SOUTH WALES AUSTRALIA
LONG TERM ECOLOGICAL RSCH NETWORK TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM RSCH NETWORK AUSTRALIAN NATL UNIV CANBERRA 0200 AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY AUSTRALIA
DEAKIN UNIV AUSTRALIA CTR REGIONAL & RURAL FUTURES GEELONG 3220 VICTORIA AUSTRALIA
ARC CTR EXCELLENCE FOR CORAL REEF STUDIES JAMES COOK UNIV TOWNSVILLE 4881 QUEENSLAND AUSTRALIA

RIVISTA

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 284(1863), 20170660

IMPACT FACTOR

4,240

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