Pubblicazione scientifica

Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock

FILONE TECNOLOGICO	TEMA
economia circolare e sostenibilità
produzione e cattura

RIASSUNTO

Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is understood that a major source of multi-year predictability resides in the ocean. Here we show the first highly skilful long-term predictions of the commercially valuable Barents Sea cod stock. The 7-year predictions are based on the propagation of ocean temperature anomalies from the subpolar North Atlantic toward the Barents Sea, and the strong co-variability between these temperature anomalies and the cod stock. Retrospective predictions for the period 1957–2017 capture well multi-year to decadal variations in cod stock biomass, with cross-validated explained variance of over 60%. For lead times longer than one year the statistical long-term predictions show more skill than operational short-term predictions used in fisheries management and lagged persistence forecasts. Our results thus demonstrate the potential for ecosystem-based fisheries management, which could enable strategic planning on longer time scales. Future predictions show a gradual decline in the cod stock towards 2024.

DATA

Data di pubblicazione: 24/10/2018

AUTORI

ARTHUN MARIUS
BOGSTAD BJARTE
DAEWEL UTE
KEENLYSIDE NOEL S
SANDØ ANNE BRITT
SCHRUM CORINNA
OTTERSEN GEIR

ENTE DI AFFERENZA

GEOPHYSICAL INST UNIV BERGEN 5007 BERGEN NORWAY
BJERKNES CTR CLIMATE RSCH 5020 BERGEN NORWAY
INST MARINE RSCH 5817 BERGEN NORWAY
HELMHOLTZ ZTR GEESTHACHT CTR MATERIALS & COASTAL RSCH 21502 GEESTHACHT GERMANY
CTR ECOLOGICAL & EVOLUTIONARY SYNTHESIS DEPT BIOSCIENCES UNIV OSLO 0316 OSLO NORWAY
WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC INST US

RIVISTA

PLoS ONE, 13(10), e0206319

IMPACT FACTOR

2,870

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