RIASSUNTO
Abstract
Engineers and managers make decisions related to drilling operations every day that must balance the risk of various alternatives. These decisions may be based on a mental, experienced based risk model that has been developed over years of decision making. However, many companies are moving to explicit risk models where risk and its economic impact are quantified. Risk is composed of two components: the probability of an event occurring and the economic consequences if it occurs. This modeling uses a logical progression to predict economic impact of trouble events such as well control, loss of circulation and sticking of the drill string or casing string.
Applying a risk model to new technology is difficult because there is no experience base for quantifying either the probability of an event occurring or the consequences of the event. This is particularly true when the technology has operational components that go against normal practices. Such is true with Casing while Drilling. Casing is used as the drill string to solve problems that one would normally expect to be made worse by drilling with a smaller wellbore clearance, higher annular velocity, and little ability to make conditioning trips.
This paper will show the results of more than 280 wells and over two million feet of hole drilled with casing over the last eight years. Comparisons will be made to conventional drilling methods in several of the areas where the technology has been applied. Elements of study include casing fatigue, casing wear, tool reliability, underreamer durability and reliability, differential sticking, lost circulation induced by increased ECD, acceptable penetration rates, etc. Results of these wells in difficult drilling areas show positively that drilling with casing is more efficient and encounters less trouble time than conventional drilling, saving operators both time and money. These savings can be seen in daily operating costs, personnel safety and in insurance premiums for the operators and drilling contractors.
Introduction
Risk and uncertainty have always been a part of the oil business. Since the beginning, drillers have been required to make decisions that could make or break a well's potential for producing oil or gas. And, there has always been plenty of risk to go around. All stages of the industry, including production, refining, marketing and transportation, as well as those who provide financial backing, assume risk on a daily basis. Perhaps no other endeavor creates a need for risk assessment and management as does the energy industry.
Yet, potential for risk isn't shunned by industry participants. Instead, it is embraced as a part of the exploration and production process. Every day engineers and managers make key decisions related to drilling operations that balance the risk of various alternatives. In the past, these decisions have been based more on personal experience and intuition than science, even though risk assessment and management tools have been available. However, today companies are moving toward more explicit risk models that quantify both the risk and the potential for economic impact on drilling projects.
Risk Models
Risk is composed of two components: the probability that an event will occur and the economic consequences of the event if it does occur. Experts in mathematics and engineering have devised risk modeling tools that can aid explorationists in understanding both their uncertainty (risk) and the evaluation/mitigation of that uncertainty.