Pubblicazione scientifica

Forecasting Seasonal Vibrio parahaemolyticus Concentrations in New England Shellfish

FILONE TECNOLOGICO	TEMA
economia circolare e sostenibilità
trasformazione e commercializzazione

RIASSUNTO

Seafood-borne Vibrio parahaemolyticus illness is a global public health issue facing resource managers and the seafood industry. The recent increase in shellfish-borne illnesses in the Northeast United States has resulted in the application of intensive management practices based on a limited understanding of when and where risks are present. We aim to determine the contribution of factors that affect V. parahaemolyticus concentrations in oysters (Crassostrea virginica) using ten years of surveillance data for environmental and climate conditions in the Great Bay Estuary of New Hampshire from 2007 to 2016. A time series analysis was applied to analyze V. parahaemolyticus concentrations and local environmental predictors and develop predictive models. Whereas many environmental variables correlated with V. parahaemolyticus concentrations, only a few retained significance in capturing trends, seasonality and data variability. The optimal predictive model contained water temperature and pH, photoperiod, and the calendar day of study. The model enabled relatively accurate seasonality-based prediction of V. parahaemolyticus concentrations for 2014–2016 based on the 2007–2013 dataset and captured the increasing trend in extreme values of V. parahaemolyticus concentrations. The developed method enables the informative tracking of V. parahaemolyticus concentrations in coastal ecosystems and presents a useful platform for developing area-specific risk forecasting models.

DATA

Data di pubblicazione: 01/11/2019

AUTORI

HARTWICK MEGHAN A
URQUHART ERIN A
WHISTLER CHERYL A
COOPER VAUGHN S
NAUMOVA ELENA N
JONES STEPHEN H

ENTE DI AFFERENZA

NORTHEAST CTR VIBRIO DISEASE & ECOLOGY UNIV NEW HAMPSHIRE DURHAM NH 03824 USA MAH2002 WILDCATS UNH EDU MAH URQUHART ERIN EPA GOV EAU CHERYL WHISTLER UNH EDU CAW
DEPT MOLECULAR CELLULAR & BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES UNIV NEW HAMPSHIRE DURHAM NH 03824 USA
DEPT NATURAL RESOURCES & ENVIRONMENT UNIV NEW HAMPSHIRE DURHAM NH 03824 USA
DEPT MICROBIOLOGY & MOLECULAR GENETICS UNIV PITTSBURGH SCHOOL OF MEDICINE PITTSBURGH PA 15261 USA VAUGHN COOPER PITT EDU
NUTRITION DATA SCIENCES FRIEDMAN SCHOOL OF NUTRITION SCIENCE & POLICY TUFTS UNIV BOSTON MA 02111 USA ELENA NAUMOVA TUFTS EDU

RIVISTA

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(22), 4341

IMPACT FACTOR

2,620

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