Pubblicazione scientifica

Experimental evidence of a pathogen invasion threshold

FILONE TECNOLOGICO	TEMA
produzione e raccolta

RIASSUNTO

Host density thresholds to pathogen invasion separate regions of parameter space corresponding to endemic and disease-free states. The host density threshold is a central concept in theoretical epidemiology and a common target of human and wildlife disease control programmes, but there is mixed evidence supporting the existence of thresholds, especially in wildlife populations or for pathogens with complex transmission modes (e.g. environmental transmission). Here, we demonstrate the existence of a host density threshold for an environmentally transmitted pathogen by combining an epidemiological model with a microcosm experiment. Experimental epidemics consisted of replicate populations of naive crustacean zooplankton (Daphnia dentifera) hosts across a range of host densities (20–640 hosts l−1) that were exposed to an environmentally transmitted fungal pathogen (Metschnikowia bicuspidata). Epidemiological model simulations, parametrized independently of the experiment, qualitatively predicted experimental pathogen invasion thresholds. Variability in parameter estimates did not strongly influence outcomes, though systematic changes to key parameters have the potential to shift pathogen invasion thresholds. In summary, we provide one of the first clear experimental demonstrations of pathogen invasion thresholds in a replicated experimental system, and provide evidence that such thresholds may be predictable using independently constructed epidemiological models.

DATA

Data di pubblicazione: 24/01/2018

AUTORI

DALLAS TAD A
KRKOSEK MARTIN
DRAKE JOHN M

ENTE DI AFFERENZA

DEPT ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY UNIV CALIFORNIA DAVIS CA USA
ODUM SCHOOL OF ECOLOGY UNIV GEORGIA ATHENS GA USA
DEPT ECOLOGY & EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY UNIV TORONTO TORONTO ONTARIO CANADA
CTR ECOLOGY OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE UNIV GEORGIA ATHENS GA USA

RIVISTA

Royal Society Open Science, 5(1), 171975

IMPACT FACTOR

2,680

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